In the aftermath of at least three defeated statewide marijuana ballot measures on Election Day, people who aren't following the issue that closely might be inclined to think the pendulum is swinging against marijuana policy reform.

They'd be wrong.

In fact, a 46% vote in favor of California's Proposition 19 - accompanied by a collection of smaller, less-publicized marijuana-policy-reform victories across the country - is yet another sign of the growing strength of the movement to end marijuana prohibition.

Now, more than ever, I'm confident that we're heading toward eventual victory.

The defeat of Prop. 19 in California, while disappointing, was entirely predictable. The measure suffered from a strong turnout by conservative and elderly voters, coupled with a lackluster showing from California's younger voters, who overwhelmingly support legalization. Both trends are common in a midterm election, which is a major reason many people, including myself, believed it would have been better to place such a proposal on the November 2012 ballot.

But regardless of its defeat, Prop. 19 may well have done more for legalization efforts than anything that's come before it -- not only by generating unprecedented national debate about our marijuana laws, but also by bringing into our movement new allies like labor unions, the NAACP, and black and Latino police associations who understand the failure of our current system. The movement to end prohibition is now stronger than ever because of these new allies, who will stand by our side during future battles.

On its most basic level, Prop. 19 received more voter support than any other legalization measure to date. (Previously that record was held by the Nevada initiative that MPP backed in 2006, which received 44% of the vote.) And that growing support for change was reflected in other states, as well: The only two gubernatorial candidates in the entire country who were vocal advocates of decriminalization and medical marijuana - Vermont's Peter Shumlin and Connecticut's Dan Malloy - were both declared winners, despite running as Democrats in a year when voters overwhelmingly favored Republicans.

And while California voters didn't approve Prop. 19, vote tallies so far indicate they rejected attorney general candidate Steve Cooley (R), who is enemy number one of medical marijuana patients in California, having once said that virtually all medical marijuana dispensaries were operating illegally and should be shut down.

In local elections in many states, voters overwhelmingly backed saner marijuana laws by rejecting dispensary bans and endorsing proposals for further reform. In Massachusetts, for example, voters in 18 out of 18 legislative districts (comprising nearly 13% of the state's population) widely approved non-binding measures calling on state lawmakers to pass medical marijuana legislation or a bill to regulate marijuana like alcohol. That support will be crucial to future efforts to improve marijuana laws in Massachusetts - and it lets officials know such change is popularly supported.

So where do we go from here? For starters, I'm advocating for a pair of legalization initiatives in 2012 in California and Colorado - states where support for ending prohibition is highest. And -- keeping in mind that marijuana initiatives tend to do better in presidential election years -- MPP still hopes to place medical-marijuana initiatives on the statewide ballots of Arkansas, Idaho, Missouri, and North Dakota in 2012. (We also remain optimistic about our chances for passing medical marijuana bills in Delaware, Maryland, Illinois, and New York before then.)

In terms of Congress, we got the most important thing we wanted from the 2009-2010 Congress -- the lifting of the federal ban on the local medical marijuana law in the District of Columbia. The 2011-2012 Congress will be more hostile to marijuana, but it won't have any immediate impact, because we aren't planning to pass marijuana-related legislation anyway.

If you're still not convinced that the pendulum isn't swinging back toward prohibition, please take note of this: At the same time that Californians were casting early ballots against Prop. 19, the national polling in favor of making the use of marijuana legal rose to an all-time high of 46%, according to Gallup.

At the rate this national poll number has been rising since 1995, a majority of American adults could support making the use of marijuana legal as soon as 2013.

Marijuana prohibition's days are numbered.

We’re still tracking down all the results from yesterday’s election, but here’s a quick look at how things fared in races affecting marijuana policy.

This year witnessed historic progress in the campaign to end marijuana prohibition – but as some of these results below show, there remains much work ahead. MPP and others are already looking to build on this year’s advances by launching new campaigns in 2012.

First, the good news: Vermont, Connecticut, and Massachusetts

The only two major party gubernatorial candidates in the nation to vocally support medical marijuana and decriminalization were both victorious. Democrat Peter Shumlin won in Vermont, and Democrat Dan Malloy won in Connecticut. Both men bring renewed hope to efforts to pass more sensible marijuana laws in their respective states.

Also, in Massachusetts, voters in 18 out of 18 districts have overwhelmingly approved a series of non-binding policy questions asking whether they support medical marijuana or the regulation of marijuana like alcohol. That not only sends a strong pro-reform message to state lawmakers, but is a good sign for future efforts in Massachusetts as well.

Next, the bad news: California, Oregon, South Dakota, and New Mexico

As most readers probably already know, California’s Proposition 19, which would have made the Golden State the first in the nation to fully end the prohibition on adult marijuana use, was defeated last night. Garnering 46% of the vote, it still made history as the highest statewide vote in favor of marijuana legalization to date.

Sadly, the Obama administration took this defeat as an opportunity to spout more baseless “Reefer Madness”-style propaganda.

In Oregon, Measure 74, which would have authorized state-licensed dispensaries, also failed, as did South Dakota’s Measure 13 for medical marijuana. Pre-election polling showed both measures trailing significantly.

And in New Mexico, voters have elected Republican Susana Martinez as the state’s next governor. Martinez has previously voiced her desire to repeal New Mexico’s medical marijuana law – considered by many to be a national model for regulation.

But wait – the undecided! Arizona and California attorney general

The only marijuana ballot measure that still retains a hope of victory is Arizona’s Proposition 203, the medical marijuana initiative that would establish up to 120 licensed dispensaries in Arizona and received significant support from MPP. Current results show the measure down by fewer than 7,000 votes, but we have reports that up to 200,000 ballots have not yet been counted. It still has a chance!

And finally – in a hugely significant contest for the future of medical marijuana in California – it appears that Republican Steve Cooley is heading toward defeat in the race for California attorney general. Simply put, Cooley is a self-declared enemy of medical marijuana laws, and his election could have wrought all kinds of hardship on thousands of patients and providers throughout California.

That’s all for now. We have more updates and analysis on the way.

Last night, San Francisco Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum threw eight innings of one run baseball, racking up 10 strikeouts in the process, and leading the Giants to their first World Series victory since moving to San Francisco at the end of the 1957 season.

Why am I writing about this on the MPP blog? Because Lincecum, a former Cy Young Award winner, is one of the millions of Americans who has used marijuana and been subjected to the criminal justice system for using a substance less harmful than alcohol. Lincecum, 26, was charged with marijuana possession last year and, after a plea agreement, was forced to pay a fine. He is not, by any stretch, the first successful athlete to use marijuana and be punished for his actions.

Lincecum’s dominating performance serves as a timely reminder that marijuana prohibition makes criminals out of both everyday and extraordinary Americans. Maybe it’s a midlevel executive working mother who uses a small amount of marijuana after her kids go to bed to unwind. She’s a criminal. Maybe it’s a wounded veteran returning from Iraq who finds marijuana works best to control his PTSD. If not covered by a medical marijuana program, he’s a criminal. Or maybe he’s the leader of the free world. Yep, they were all criminals, too.

Luckily, Californians have a unique opportunity today to end this unjust criminalization of otherwise law-abiding adults by voting yes on Proposition 19.

Will California claim two historic victories in two days? We shall see. 

Voters all across the country will cast ballots tomorrow in elections that could alter the course of U.S. marijuana policy for years to come. Here are the 9 most important contests to watch for the movement to end marijuana prohibition:

1. California: Proposition 19 would make marijuana legal for all adults – it represents the best chance to date for a single state to overturn the failure of marijuana prohibition and offer an alternative for others to follow. It would make it legal for all adults 21 and older to possess up to one ounce of marijuana, as well as grow a 25-square-foot marijuana garden on their property. It would also allow localities to tax and regulate marijuana sales, but it remains unclear how the federal government would react if Prop 19 passes. Website: yeson19.org
2. Arizona: Proposition 203, an MPP-backed initiative, would allow patients suffering from cancer, AIDS, and other life-threatening diseases to use marijuana with their doctor’s recommendation. Patients could purchase their medicine from tightly regulated, state-licensed dispensaries or grow their own if they live more than 25 miles from a clinic. Website: stoparrestingpatients.org
3. Oregon: Measure 74 would expand the state’s existing medical marijuana law by authorizing regulated, state-licensed nonprofit clinics to provide improved patient access to their medicine. The system would generate an estimated $3 to $20 million a year for the state through taxes and fees. Website: measure74.com
4. South Dakota: Measure 13 would allow patients suffering from cancer, AIDS and other serious ailments to use marijuana with a recommendation from their doctor. Patients could grow their own medicine or designate a caregiver to grow it for them. Website: sdcompassion.org
5. Vermont: VOTE Peter Shumlin for governor. Shumlin (D), the state Senate pro tempore, played a major role in passing Vermont’s medical marijuana law in 2004, and has been a staunch advocate for marijuana decriminalization. MPP has spent years lobbying for a decriminalization law in Vermont. With Shumlin as governor, Vermont would be well poised to pass decriminalization and expand its medical marijuana law by authorizing licensed dispensaries. Website: www.shumlinforgovernor.com
6. California: NOT Steve Cooley for attorney general. Los Angeles County District Attorney Steve Cooley (R) is a rabid anti-marijuana zealot who has falsely claimed that all medical marijuana dispensaries are illegal, and that he would continue to prosecute adults for marijuana crimes even if voters pass Proposition 19.  If he wins the election for state attorney general, he will become the state’s top law enforcement official and could reverse years of progress toward saner marijuana laws in California. Website: notcooley.com
7. New Mexico: NOT Susana Martinez for governor. Martinez (R), the leading candidate for governor, has said she will work to overturn New Mexico’s medical marijuana law if elected. New Mexico’s law enjoys wide popular support and is often described as the tightest-regulated law in the country. But Martinez believes federal law should trump a popular local law – despite the Obama administration’s promise of non-intervention in state medical marijuana laws. Website: donttakeawaymymedicine.org
8. Connecticut: VOTE Dan Malloy for governor. Malloy (D) has said that he “absolutely” supports decriminalizing marijuana, as well as medical marijuana legislation that would protect seriously ill patients from arrest. Outgoing Gov. Jodi M. Rell vetoed medical marijuana legislation in 2007. If Malloy were elected governor, proponents would be given renewed hope for passing a medical marijuana law in Connecticut. Website: danmalloy.com
9. Massachusetts: More than 70 local municipalities in Massachusetts will be voting on non-binding resolutions and public policy questions calling on the state government to pass medical marijuana or end marijuana prohibition entirely. These initiatives are a great opportunity for Massachusetts voters to send a strong message to their state lawmakers, as well as give local organizers a better sense of where things stand for future marijuana initiatives in Massachusetts. Website: masscann.org

You can find links to other MPP state voter guides at our state page.

Now -- if you haven't already -- go out and VOTE!

A new Gallup poll released yesterday shows that a record number of Americans believe marijuana should be made legal, while support for keeping it illegal continues to decline steadily. As Californians prepare to vote on Proposition 19 on Tuesday, a record 46% of Americans “think the use of marijuana should be made legal” – up from 44% last year, according to Gallup. An all-time low of 50% believe marijuana should remain illegal.

These numbers are more evidence that Americans are increasingly rejecting the notion that otherwise law-abiding adults should be criminalized for using a substance that is less harmful than alcohol. To put these latest results in perspective, more Americans now support legalizing marijuana than approve of President Obama’s job performance.

According to Gallup’s most recent polling average, 44 percent of Americans currently approve of President Obama’s job performance.

Gallup found that support for making marijuana legal was highest among liberals (72%), 18- to 29-year-olds (61%) and people living in the West (58%). Majority support also exists among Democrats, independents, men, and moderates.

No matter what happens on Election Day next week, these numbers show that nationally, support for ending prohibition continues to trend in the right direction. "If the trend of the past decade continues at a similar pace, majority support could be a reality within the next few years," according to Gallup.

The 2010 mid-term elections are just 5 days away, so there is no better time to share this important message:

No adult should be punished for choosing something safer than alcohol.

We produced this powerful 30-second video to inspire you and everyone you share it with.  It’s time to give adults the legal option to use a substance that is safer than alcohol – marijuana!  Use this video to inspire your friends, family members, and co-workers to support efforts to tax and regulate marijuana similar to alcohol.

Aside from the fact that marijuana prohibition is a complete failure – 17 million Americans consume it regularly and surveys show that young people are able to obtain it more easily than alcohol or tobacco  -- it also steers people toward our nation’s #1 most preferred recreational drug, alcohol, which happens to be more dangerous.  While the danger that a food, drug, or activity pose is not sufficient reason to prohibit it, our laws should not punish people for making the rational choice to use a less harmful substance.

Currently, responsible adults who prefer to relax at the end of the day with marijuana must risk prosecution to do so.  Getting arrested for a marijuana-related offense could mean a simple fine, but it could also mean losing your driver’s license, your federal student financial aid, your job, your children or your home.  We waste billions of dollars every year on this failed policy that causes far more harm than marijuana itself.

It’s time for this to end.

Unless you've been living under a rock, you're probably aware of Proposition 19, the ballot measure Californians will vote on next week that would make marijuana legal for all adults and deliver an unprecedented blow to our nation's wasteful, ineffective, and destructive prohibition on a plant less harmful than alcohol.

But you may not have heard that voters in a handful of other states will have opportunities to advance saner marijuana laws on Election Day, as well. Two states, Arizona and South Dakota, have medical marijuana initiatives on the ballot. A third, Oregon, will consider expanding its existing medical marijuana law by authorizing state-licensed dispensaries.

In Vermont and Connecticut, two prospective governors - Democrats Peter Shumlin and Dan Malloy, respectively - are campaigning as supporters of marijuana decriminalization. And voters in dozens of locales in California, Colorado, and Massachusetts will vote on their own local initiatives on various marijuana-related issues. In all, there may be more at stake for marijuana reform on November 2 than in any previous election.

But before a single vote tally is reported, it should be noted that -- regardless of any results next week -- 2010 might already go down in history as a major turning point in the government's failed war on marijuana. It was the year when marijuana prohibition became ingrained as a topic of mainstream public discourse, when political strategists first openly encouraged both major parties to embrace marijuana voters, and when - without much national notice or outrage - a Western state (not California) began to enact the first widespread system of legal, licensed, and regulated marijuana stores anywhere in the nation.

The unprecedented levels of mainstream media coverage generated by Prop. 19 and other marijuana issues cannot be overlooked. When virtually every TV news outlet and major print or online publication in the country gives prominent coverage to marijuana policy, it compels millions of Americans to think seriously about this issue for perhaps the first time in their lives. People who for years may have thought regulating marijuana was a "fringe" idea unlikely to ever come to fruition will inevitably reconsider as they see mothers, former police officers, and a former U.S. surgeon general renouncing our current policies live on television.

Perhaps the most interesting detail in all that coverage was the conspicuous decline of the prohibitionist pundit. In years past, spokespeople for the Marijuana Policy Project and allied pro-reform organizations have been pitted in debates against representatives of the federal government and other talking heads who were more than willing to go on the air and twist reality in order to uphold the status quo. But this year - as my communications staff can attest - it was not uncommon for TV bookers to find it difficult, if not impossible, to confirm guests who would put themselves on the line to argue in favor of prohibition and defend policies that are being increasingly revealed as factually and morally bankrupt.

Indeed, the man who became the de facto leading voice of the opposition against Prop. 19 in California was a previously unknown recovering drug addict whose best arguments against marijuana legalization included borderline indecipherable rants about cobras, rattlesnakes, and the devil.

This intellectual void on our opponents' side, combined with increasing support for reform among voters, led most naysayers in California to abandon questioning the merits of legalization itself and focus instead on the specific language of Prop. 19. As pointed out by the Los Angeles Times:

About half of [voters] now consistently tell pollsters they want to legalize marijuana, which opponents tacitly acknowledge by aiming their arguments not at legalization but at this particular initiative, ridiculing it as flawed. The argument signed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein in the voter guide begins: "Even if you support legalization of recreational marijuana, you should vote 'No' on Proposition 19."

It's worth noting that the Los Angeles Times itself, along with almost every other major daily newspaper in California, editorialized against Prop. 19 while also tacitly acknowledging the rationale - and in certain cases, the inevitability - behind regulating marijuana like alcohol.

In fact, this year's most telling statistic about the future of marijuana reform might be this one, from a Rasmussen poll conducted in July: Nearly two-thirds of Americans (65%) now believe that it is "somewhat likely" that marijuana will become legal in the United States in the next 10 years. "Just 28% do not expect this to happen," according to the poll.

Combine that growing sense of inevitability with the exceptionally high percentage of young and up-and-coming voters who passionately believe marijuana should be legal, and fundamentally changing our nation's broken marijuana laws seems more attainable than ever.

But of course nothing is guaranteed or should be taken for granted. The millions of Americans who want to see these laws change will be looking to voters in places with marijuana initiatives to cast a strong vote against the status quo and in favor of reform on November 2. MPP and others are already planning similar initiatives for future years, but we could use every bit of momentum possible to dismantle the "Berlin Wall" of marijuana prohibition.

So, if you live in one of those aforementioned states, remember to go out and vote for more sensible marijuana laws, while keeping in mind that ending marijuana prohibition in this country is achievable - and may be closer than you think.

On Sunday, masked gunmen executed 13 people in a drug rehabilitation center in Tijuana, Mexico, just across the border from San Diego. Authorities now think these grisly murders may have been in retaliation for the massive marijuana bust that occurred there last week.

Whether the victims were actually involved in the seizure of 134 tons of marijuana destined for the U.S. is unknown, but in the end it makes no difference. It is clear that the tactics of marijuana prohibition are ineffective at producing anything besides shattered lives and dead bodies. Yet stories such as this are rarely heard in the debate for marijuana reform here in the U.S., despite the fact that it is our market for illicit substances that gives cartels the power to wage war on each other and the rest of society.

American law enforcement and politicians continue to support laws that cause death and mayhem across Mexico, perhaps because they don’t have to deal with the side effects of their choices in the same manner as their counterparts south of the border. When an entire police force quits on the same day rather than face further attack, there is obviously something wrong. But can you blame them?

The Rand Corporation released a study saying that Californian voters could take a bite out of the immense profits these murderers are making in their state by passing Proposition 19 on Tuesday. Regardless of any disagreement over just how big that bite would be, it is a moral imperative to cut into the cartel coffers in any way possible. Every dollar that is spent in a taxed and regulated marijuana market could contribute to California’s schools and health care, rather than ammo and blood.

Over the past month or so, there has been a mini-boomlet in coverage about the potential impact of marijuana initiatives on young voter turnout. Most notably, an article in the Wall Street Journal appeared earlier this month with the headline, “Democrats Look to Cultivate Pot Vote in 2012.”

With this as background, it was interesting to see this blog post by the polling firm PPP yesterday prior to today’s release of a survey on Proposition 19 in California, the initiative to tax and regulate marijuana in the state:

One of the big questions in California this year has been how big of an impact Proposition 19, the ballot proposal to legalize marijuana, will have on turnout in the state. In an effort to figure that out we asked respondents on our new survey there what on the ballot they were most excited about voting for: 39% said the Governor's race, 26% the Senate race, 10% Prop 19, 4% one of the other props, 2% a local race, 1% their US House race, and 18% said they weren't sure.

But this 10 percent figure did not appropriately convey the true impact of the initiative on voter turnout. If you examine the crosstabs provided by PPP today along with the full results of the survey (click on "here" at the end of the hyperlinked blog post), you will see that young voters – who are less likely to vote in a mid-term election – expressed much greater enthusiasm about Prop. 19. When voters 18-29 were asked which race they were most excited about a full 29 percent said Prop. 19!

Marijuana-related initiatives do inspire young voter turnout. The only question is whether progressives, who will generally benefit from this increased turnout, will take advantage of it politically.